Contents

  • List of Tables
  • List of Figures

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. INTRODUCTION

  • Investment Categories
  • Impact on Investments
  • Derivative Investments
  • Study Focus

3. ETHYLENE PLANT CONSTRUCTION COSTS

3.1 First Wave New Crackers: Gulf Coast

  • The First Wave Cost Profiles
  • 1.0 Million Tons Per Year Ethylene Plant
  • 1.25 Million Tons Per Year Ethylene Plant
  • 1.5 Million Tons Per Year Ethylene Plant

3.2 The Second Wave New Crackers: The Gulf Coast-2020

Comparing the Gulf Coast with North-East

3.3 New Crackers: Northeast

3.4 Comparative Economics

3.5 Expansion Units

Summary costs

4. DERIVATIVE PLANT COST SUMMARIES

4.1 Polyethylene

  • LDPE Tubular Technology
  • LLDPE Technologies

4.2 HDPE Technology

  • HDPE Gas Phase
  • Summary Cost Analysis

4.3 EO/EG

4.4 EDC/VCM/PVC

4.5 Alpha-olefins

5. CHALLENGES & ISSUES

5.1 Procurement

5.2 Labor

  • Craft Data Results

5.3 Weather

5.4 Logistics

5.5 Export competition

5.6 Projects in Planning

  • Northeast Advantage 
  • PVC
  • Strategic Considerations
  • Export Competition
  • Timing

5.7 Oil and Gas Prices

5.8 Risks with Oil Price Scenarios

5.9 Construction Issues: Second Wave

Post-construction

6. ESTIMATED COSTS OF FIRST WAVE

Ethylene Complexes

APPENDIX

Methodology and Estimation Basis

Future Inflation/Escalation Rates (Applies to all Cost Models)

Estimating Basis

Exclusions & Qualifications

Cost Data Summary Tables

Acronyms

Tables

  • Table 1: Total Estimated Cost of the First Wave
  • Table 2: Ethylene Cracker Projects in North America
  • Table 3: North American Ethylene Capacity Under Construction: The First Wave (2016-2021 Start-up)
  • Table 4: US Ethylene Derivative Unit Projects
  • Table 5: First Wave US Ethylene Cracker and Expansion Projects (2016 to 2021 Start-up)
  • Table 6: Second Wave Potential New Ethylene Cracker Projects in the US
  • Table 7: New Ethylene Cracker Sizes by Location (KTA)
  • Table 8: Cracker Capacities Covered by the Research
  • Table 9: Cost Categories Included in the Analysis
  • Table 10: Gulf Coast Major Equipment Costs 1.25 MMTPY Base Case
  • Table 11: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Bulk Materials Costs Base Case
  • Table 12: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Indirect Costs Base Case
  • Table 13: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Cracker Cost Summary
  • Table 14: Estimated Project Cost of 1.0, 1.25 and 1.5 MMTPY Gulf Coast Crackers
  • Table 15: Second Wave Construction and Design Cost Estimates (Construction Starting in 2020
  • Table 16: First and Second Wave Gulf Coast Cracker Cost Comparison
  • Table 17: US Ethylene Expansions
  • Table 18: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Ethylene Expansion Unit Major Equipment Costs
  • Table 19: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Ethylene Expansion Unit Bulk Materials Costs
  • Table 20: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Ethylene Expansion Unit Indirect Costs
  • Table 21: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Ethylene Expansion Unit Cost Summary
  • Table 22: Derivative Complex Cost Estimates
  • Table 23: Polyethylene Technology Licensors and Owners
  • Table 24: Derivative Unit Cost Estimates
  • Table 25: Annual Craft Wages
  • Table 26: Estimated Complex Construction Cost for Projects Under Construction in the US

Figures

  • Figure 1: Comparative Ethylene Cracker Costs, Base Case, Gulf Coast
  • Figure 2: Second Wave Ethane Cracker Construction Cost Summary (Construction to Start 2020)
  • Figure 3: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Ethylene Expansion Unit Cost Summary
  • Figure 4: Cumulative Shale Gas Chemical Investment
  • Figure 5: US Oil to Gas Price Ratio
  • Figure 6: Ethylene Margins Ethane vs Naphtha Feedstock
  • Figure 7: Gulf Coast Cracker Project Cost Comparison
  • Figure 8: 1.0 MMTPY Gulf Coast Ethylene Plant Cost Summary
  • Figure 9: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Ethylene Plant Cost Summary
  • Figure 10: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Major Equipment Costs (Excluding Columns)
  • Figure 11: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Bulk Materials Costs
  • Figure 12: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Indirect Costs
  • Figure 13: 1.5 MMTPY Gulf Coast Ethylene Plant Cost Summary
  • Figure 14: Second Wave Cracker Cost Comparison (Construction Starting in 2020)
  • Figure 15: Project Construction and Detailed Design Forecasts 1.0 MMTPY Cracker 2016-2020 (Gulf Coast) $Millions
  • Figure 16: 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Construction and Design Costs Forecast 2016-2020
  • Figure 17: 1.5 MMTPY Gulf Coast Construction and Design Costs Forecast 2016-2020
  • Figure 18: 1.25 MMTPY North East Cost Summary
  • Figure 19: 1.25 MMTPY Construction and Design Costs Forecast 2016-2020
  • Figure 20: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Expansion Unit Cost Summary
  • Figure 21: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Expansion Unit Major Equipment Costs
  • Figure 22: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Expansion Unit Bulk Materials
  • Figure 23: 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Expansion Unit Indirect Costs
  • Figure 24: Oil to Gas Price Ratio at a Range of Commodity Prices

Excel Workbook Contents

An excel workbook comprising over 85+ tabs and containing all the data in this study is provided for all clients. Escalation rates and quarterly updates are available only for multi user clients. The tabs in the excel sheet are listed below.

Cost Spreadsheets

  • 200 (KTA) Gulf Coast Expansion Unit
  • 1.0 MMTPY Gulf Coast
  • 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast
  • 1.25 MMTPY North East
  • 1.5 MMTPY Gulf Coast

Escalation Rate Tables

  • 200 (KTA) Expansion Unit Escalation Rates
  • 1.0 MMTPY Gulf Coast Escalation Rates
  • 1.25 MMTPY Gulf Coast Escalation Rates
  • 1.25 MMTPY North East Escalation Rates
  • 1.5 MMTPY Gulf Coast Escalation Rates

Cost Forecasts

  • Gulf Coast Projects Construction & Design Cost Forecasts
  • Gulf Coast 2022 Forecasts
  • North East Project Construction & Design Cost Forecasts
  • North East 2022 Forecast
  • 200 (KTA) Expansion Unit Forecast

Key Cost Category Data

  • 0.2 Major Equipment
  • 0.2 Bulk Materials
  • 0.2 Indirect Costs
  • 0.2 Cost Summary
  • 1.0 Major Equipment
  • 1.0 Bulk Materials
  • 1.0 Indirect Costs
  • 1.0 Cost Summary
  • 1.25 Major Equipment
  • 1.25 Bulk Materials
  • 1.25 Indirect Costs
  • 1.25 Cost Summary
  • 1.25 North East Major Equipment
  • 1.25 North East Bulk Materials
  • 1.25 North East Indirect Costs
  • 1.25 North East Cost Summary

1.5 Major Equipment

  • 1.5 Bulk Materials
  • 1.5 Indirect Costs
  • 1.5 Cost Summary

Quarterly Update Contents

Available to Full Spectrum Subscribers only.

Quarterly Updates to construction data are provided in March, July, October and January.

  • New Cracker Project Status Updates
  • Key Construction Issues
  • Total Construction Costs Comparison
  • Major Equipment Costs Comparison
  • Bulk Materials Costs Comparison
  • Indirect Costs Comparison
  • Other Costs Comparison
  • Methodology & Estimation Basis

Quarterly Spreadsheet Contents

  • Ethane Cracker Construction Projects
  • Total Construction Cost Comparison
  • Gulf Coast Project Cost Comparison
  • Oil vs Natural Gas Prices Ratio
  • Total Construction Cost Comparison
  • Gulf Coast Project Cost Comparison
  • 0.2 MT GC Bulk Materials
  • 0.2 MT GC Major Equipment
  • 0.2 MT GC Indirect Costs
  • 1.0 MT GC Bulk Materials
  • 1.0 MT GC Major Equipment
  • 1.0 MT GC Indirect Costs
  • 1.25 MT NE Bulk Materials
  • 1.25 MT NE Major Equipment
  • 1.25 MT NE Indirect Costs
  • 1.25 MT GC Bulk Materials
  • 1.25 MT GC Major Equipment
  • 1.25 MT GC Indirect Costs
  • 1.5 MT GC Bulk Materials
  • 1.5 MT GC Major Equipment
  • 1.5 MT GC Indirect Costs

Escalation Rates

  • 0.2 Expansion Unit
  • 1.0 Gulf Coast
  • 1.25 Gulf Coast
  • 1.25 North East
  • 1.5 Gulf Coast

If you have any questions, please contact:

Aleksandra Sledzinska
Aleksandra Sledzinska
Client Relationship Manager
Petrochemical Update
+44 (0) 207 422 4332
asledzinska@petchem-update.com